by Guest » September 30, 2021, 12:22 pm
If GLF is indeed up for sale as appears likely to be the case, I don't see this ending good for many of the ships in the fleet. Having followed the Great Lakes shipping industry since the 1970s, I have to say that these are among the most troubling times I have ever seen other than the 1980s. Despite Interlake building a new ship, I can only see the current number of ships on the lakes being further reduced and I would estimate that about 1/3 to 1/2 half of those currently under the US flag will be gone by 2030. I base this on the continued decline of coal, new environmental standards, and the absence of any major investiments in the integrated steel mills served by many of these ships.
I would imagine that any sale of GLF assets does not bode well for the Blough as it would seem reasonable that it would be sold for scrap rather than trying to find a buyer willing to accept a ship in need of major work given the current economic conditions. The most probable result will be a breakup of the current fleet to multiple owners like what happened with the Oglebay Norton fleet. With its limited versatility, the future of the Edgar B. Speer is open to question as any potential buyer would want to secure long-term contracts for the few ports at which it can serve. On the other hand, putting a boom on that ship may not be beyond a cost-effective solution to its limited capabilities unless there is some design feature that would complicate such a conversion. I would expect to see at least 1 to 2 of the AAA class going to scrap if not all three (Anderson, Clarke, Callaway). The Munson (sometimes also considered a AAA), with its relatively recent repowering, would appear to have a much more secure future. The Great Republic and Edwin H. Gott will likely be picked up by other fleets. The Presque Isle may present a different question depending upon how efficient it is in operation. The overall condition and estimated serviceable lives of these ships will also determine their future.
Obviously, potential buyers are Interlake, Rand, and CML. Although I doubt that Cliffs would want to reenter the Great Lakes shipping business it is possible they could purchase the fleet and run it as a subsidiary. On the other hand, could Algoma or CSL see this as an opportunity to create US subsidiaries to engage in the movement of cargo between US ports? Any of these scenarios will likely result in some ships being sold for dismantling.
Unfortunately, this situation involves much more than fleet changes, color changes, renamings, and new stack markings. Having been through a few corporate changes myself during my career, I feel for the GLF employees that are now faced with an uncertain future.
If GLF is indeed up for sale as appears likely to be the case, I don't see this ending good for many of the ships in the fleet. Having followed the Great Lakes shipping industry since the 1970s, I have to say that these are among the most troubling times I have ever seen other than the 1980s. Despite Interlake building a new ship, I can only see the current number of ships on the lakes being further reduced and I would estimate that about 1/3 to 1/2 half of those currently under the US flag will be gone by 2030. I base this on the continued decline of coal, new environmental standards, and the absence of any major investiments in the integrated steel mills served by many of these ships.
I would imagine that any sale of GLF assets does not bode well for the Blough as it would seem reasonable that it would be sold for scrap rather than trying to find a buyer willing to accept a ship in need of major work given the current economic conditions. The most probable result will be a breakup of the current fleet to multiple owners like what happened with the Oglebay Norton fleet. With its limited versatility, the future of the Edgar B. Speer is open to question as any potential buyer would want to secure long-term contracts for the few ports at which it can serve. On the other hand, putting a boom on that ship may not be beyond a cost-effective solution to its limited capabilities unless there is some design feature that would complicate such a conversion. I would expect to see at least 1 to 2 of the AAA class going to scrap if not all three (Anderson, Clarke, Callaway). The Munson (sometimes also considered a AAA), with its relatively recent repowering, would appear to have a much more secure future. The Great Republic and Edwin H. Gott will likely be picked up by other fleets. The Presque Isle may present a different question depending upon how efficient it is in operation. The overall condition and estimated serviceable lives of these ships will also determine their future.
Obviously, potential buyers are Interlake, Rand, and CML. Although I doubt that Cliffs would want to reenter the Great Lakes shipping business it is possible they could purchase the fleet and run it as a subsidiary. On the other hand, could Algoma or CSL see this as an opportunity to create US subsidiaries to engage in the movement of cargo between US ports? Any of these scenarios will likely result in some ships being sold for dismantling.
Unfortunately, this situation involves much more than fleet changes, color changes, renamings, and new stack markings. Having been through a few corporate changes myself during my career, I feel for the GLF employees that are now faced with an uncertain future.