GLF update?

Discussion board focusing on Great Lakes Shipping Question & Answer. From beginner to expert all posts are welcome.
hausen
Posts: 803
Joined: July 2, 2010, 1:36 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by hausen »

Guest wrote:
Jared wrote:Would/ could the lake boats service these new mini-mills?
That said, the new Cliffs facility in Toledo exists to produce HBI for mini mill applications. It seems likely that as ore cargo demand falls at integrated mills, it will rise at current and future HBI facilities.
Well said. A company called Petmin has the permitting to construct and operate a new pig iron plant on the waterfront at Ashtabula, Ohio, and did some preliminary construction work for it last winter. Construction was suspended in spring 2021 (if memory serves) as the company cited supply chain and other logistical issues tied to the pandemic, and stated that it hoped to resume construction in autumn 2021. Doesn't seem like that has happened yet, but if this plant does get built, it's likely to commence production in 2023 or maybe 2024 and would likely source some or all of its raw materials via ship. Plant is slated to produce something like 400,000 tons per year of nodular pig iron, a niche product used in the casting industry to make ductile iron.

If the waterfront placement model of the Toledo and/or Ashtabula iron plants prove successful, it's possible that more such capacity could be built around the Great Lakes in the future, as the poster above mentioned. This would provide demand for a small or medium volume of tonnage that could soften the blow felt by Great Lakes shipping companies due to declining integrated steel mill / blast furnace demand.
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

Jared wrote:Would/ could the lake boats service these new mini-mills?
Yes and no. The pellets and limestone shipped to integrated mills are of no direct use to mini mills, which use an electric arc to melt scrap. The ongoing transition of mini mills will continue to reduce shipping demand.

That said, the new Cliffs facility in Toledo exists to produce HBI for mini mill applications. It seems likely that as ore cargo demand falls at integrated mills, it will rise at current and future HBI facilities.
Jared
Posts: 798
Joined: December 6, 2014, 4:51 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Jared »

Would/ could the lake boats service these new mini-mills?
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

One thing being left out of this discussion is how none of the integrated steel mills are doing any capital investments into their facilities; i.e., by building new blast furnaces or even talk of building a new mill. Yet, their biggest competitors, the mini-mills, are investing large sums of money to expand their EAF and hot-rolled capacity and in fact are adding nearly 18 million tons of additional capacity by 2022 in the US, either by expansion or building new greenfield plants.

When CN Rail purchased GLF in 2003, which came with the purchase of DMIR (which the railroad purchased so they could connect to the Wisconsin Central), I was surprised that the railroad at that time didn't sell the fleet to another company. Since demand for lake shipping was increasing up until September 2008 when the bubble burst in the world economy, CN Rail possibly could have made a handsome profit with GLF's sale.

I read that Bill Gates, one of the founders of Microsoft, is the largest single shareholder of CN Rail, with a 10% interest through Cascade Investment and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

- Brian
drydock
Posts: 149
Joined: November 8, 2012, 1:07 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by drydock »

I hope Cliffs pulls this off. I think it would solidify the lakes shipping industry.
Andrew

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Andrew »

If GLF exits the scene, I'm willing to bet CML/Cliffs or Interlake would pick up the majority of the fleet.

There has been talk of Cliffs trying to get back into the shipping scene so that they can control the iron production in its entirety, and I know there have been rumblings of Rand selling off the footers to a company like CML/Cliffs. If Cliffs could combine CML, GLF, and the Rand footers, they would be in a spot where they would have pretty much a monopoly on their iron production.
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

Not mentioned that I've seen is the recent attack on current Canadian National management in the wake of their failure to merge with Kansas City Southern.

TCI Fund, the 2nd biggest investment group that owns a significant percentage of CN stock, is unhappy with the road's financial performance and wants the operating ratio (The % of each dollar of revenue that had to be spent to earn that dollar) slashed to temporarily drive up share price while having their own board, CEO, and chairmen installed in place of current management.

Canadian National as a result in a bid by current management to retain control, has announced a big plan to lower the operating ratio that involves cutting way back on capital spending (i.e., deferred maintenance will be the name of the game), share buybacks, and a review of all non-rail businesses. Those businesses, including Great Lakes Fleet, will be reviewed with an eye towards either improving their operating ratio or selling them off.

Not good for Canadian National. The operating ratio has lagged not because of problems, but because they've been growing and busy looking not to the next quarter but to 5-10 years down the road with their strategic planning and investments that often involve projects that raise the operating ratio but promise to offer a lot of value to stakeholders in the longer term.

So perhaps all this speculation will be for naught since it's not difficult to envision this fleet being sold in the not too distant future (They're aiming to bring down last year's 65.4% OR down to 57% next year, so unless GLF brings in say more than 45 cents or so in profit for each dollar it costs to operate, CN will likely want out).

A potential suitor like Interlake likely is going to have significantly different ideas on how to move forward than current management, and the future of some of these vessels may be significantly different if some big ownership changes come to pass.

And if GLF does stay under CN control, it makes it even more difficult to envision major investments in their idled vessels. Not only do they need contracts in place to keep a reactivated ship busy while yielding a profit, but unless that profit is a high enough percentage to maintain or improve corporate's operating ratio, it's going to be seen as undesirable and be avoided entirely. All thanks to shortsighted activists investment funds that do these slash and burn tactics to artificially inflate share value temporarily and then sell their stake before the negative impact of their tactics strikes and the value of their stake plummets as things like deferred maintenance on track start causing derailments left and right.
Andrew

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Andrew »

Azcon doesn't probably have the space either. I would expect Port Colborne. If they can take the St. Clair and Arthur B. Homer, they should be able to do the Blough too.
Bob

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Bob »

So if and when the blough goes to scrap where would this take place? Don’t know if it would fit at port colborne, so could they possibly scrap her at azcon in Duluth?
Andrew

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Andrew »

While I agree with you the Anderson was in rough shape, I think a lot of us underestimate the AAA class. Despite the fact they were built in 1952, their hulls have held up remarkably, and one might argue that they simply built better ships back then. Granted, there are cargo hold issues, but those are things that cost less than a completely new hull. They also are probably the money makers of the fleet, since they backhaul stone. Their size is perfect, and the upgrades they have received over the years have kept them in good shape. They seem, for the most part, to be kept up well, although I don't know how CN does compared to USS. Regardless of condition, they're good to save for a rainy day.

With power plant upgrades to many of the older ships in the great lakes fleet (Interlake, CML, Munson), I think the hulls are in good enough shape to last 100 years and the owners seem to agree. In her current state, I'd argue the Anderson is in better shape than a good chunk of the great lakes fleet and could conceivably last to see a centennial.

What I don't understand, and maybe someone can answer, is if the Callaway was put into long term layup, why didn't CN put her at the wall at North 6 in Duluth? That way they don't have to pay dock space.
Guest_SB

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest_SB »

They work for a subcontractor that does work at more than one yard.

That's my guess. Asbestos removal is subcontracted at Bay.
Jared
Posts: 798
Joined: December 6, 2014, 4:51 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Jared »

Guest wrote:How would someone at Bay Shipbuilding know what went on with the Anderson, which was laid up in Superior and repaired at Fraser?
They work in the same field?
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

How would someone at Bay Shipbuilding know what went on with the Anderson, which was laid up in Superior and repaired at Fraser?
Jared
Posts: 798
Joined: December 6, 2014, 4:51 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Jared »

Talked to my friend today working at Bay Shipbuilding. He has been on the Blough twice this spring working on Asbestos removal and said they were removing equipment from the hull. Rumor is rumor and no concrete plan has been announced to him or any of the other workers there (not his boss either). Essentially he gave me 3 scenarios which he saw possible:

1. The most probable, she will be scrapped as she is limited in her capacity to other ports, her machinery is outdated, and her hull is not in the best of shape. The grounding several years ago was quite damaging and the effects are still there. She sits out more than she operates.

2. She sits at the wall for several years waiting for conditions to improve or change to bring her back out and repair her when that time comes. However she eats up valuable dockage.

3. She sits at the wall getting repaired and repowered/ upgraded periodically and gets ready to sail when conditions improve.

He was genuinely surprised that the Anderson wasn't scrapped in 2019. They were just waiting to paint the name out when the office called and had her repaired. After that it's of his opinion that none of AAAs are on the chopping block yet and should last another decade. He also thinks the footers are in the same boat (pun intended) as the AAAs, but he thinks the Cort may have a service problem in the next 5 years.

More exciting news he's getting is the probability of new contract to build a new laker after the new Barker is completed.

I'm told not to expect a decision to be made on her fate this year.
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

I would suggest that footers are maxed out rite now no need for that kind of tonnage i would expect any new builds will be like Interlakes new ship, 730 or below, companies should make sure tugs that are pushing atb should have too meet all standards of ships
Guest

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Guest »

Are there exemptions built into the CII standards for vessels engaged exclusively in domestic shipping? The IMO documents I’ve come across emphasize international trade, but I haven’t reviewed the amendments in detail as this isn’t my area.

A large cross section of the U.S. fleet, especially the footers, engage in very little international commerce as it is. The main exception that stands out would be ore runs to Nanticoke. Perhaps the impact would be more severe for the Canadian side, but with a domestic exemption a carrier like Interlake could see very few impacts in the near term.
GuestfromEU
Posts: 359
Joined: December 7, 2014, 10:33 am

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by GuestfromEU »

Some good perspectives are raised here, if only for discussion, but very much on point. With CII/EEXI rules still to be fully finalized and adopted, there is no certainty about loopholes or exemptions. It is possible there may be extended compliance timeframes for ships on the Great Lakes, but I honestly believe this is doubtful. Shipowners around the world are quietly protesting, but it falls on deaf ears and the IMO is holding steadfast on the resolution. Class societies are on the bandwagon too, all promoting their assistance offerings for compliance. Industry partners also are generally in support, as this will have an ongoing impact for future engineering solutions, since this will not mean a one-time upgrade to each ship, but a majority will see continual lifecycle capital improvements. The USA could petition the IMO to offer exemptions for specific vessels, though a positive outcome is unlikely given IMO's hard stance on the issue.

I do believe vessels classed as tugboats are exempt from CII/EEXI regulations, but I do not have enough knowledge to confirm. If so, then efficiency concerns are not applicable to ATB's, which could prove attractive to some owners. Another benefit of the ATB arrangement is ease of replacing the tug alone if regulations dictate improvement in efficiency and capital upgrades are not justified. Replacement of a tug is a more cost attractive opportunity compared to investing in modernizations to a ship. Still, this requires a significant investment.

CII calculations factor not only the fuel efficiency of the ship, but also the deadweight and cargo moved per year. While a thousand foot ship may have a less efficient hull form, it would come out ahead when calculating efficiency of cargo moved for fuel consumed. I believe any consideration of cargo section renewal on any ship is a dead subject. This would require a massive investment for nothing gained other than new steel. Even converting steam propulsion plants to diesel is questionable in terms of payback given the sliding scale for CII. Converting existing vessels - ships or ATB-mated barges - is slightly more probable, but perhaps this could go the opposite, with the return of ATB conversions if tugboats will be exempt from CII.

New construction of ships is very possible if shipowners have confidence in securing work for 40 years. Coal cargos are on the decline and will be <5% of cargo lifted by 2030. Aggregate cargos will always be available, varying in capacity to match the economy and construction sector. Steel-related cargos (taconite, briquettes, coke, and limestone) will continue a gradual decline, but always maintain a significant portion of cargos moved overall. However, a consideration to not forget is delivery of all the steel-related raw material could feasibly be done by rail. Waterborne transportation has always maintained an advantage in lower cost per ton-mile in transportation, but this gap can narrow if shipowners are forced to invest in new vessels, or upgrade existing fleets with capital extensive projects.
hausen
Posts: 803
Joined: July 2, 2010, 1:36 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by hausen »

As far as the future of Key Lakes/GLF and the Blough goes, a lot depends on what exactly CII / EEXI means for other hulls in the GLF fleet, for other ships on the U.S. side of the Lakes, and for things like ATBs.

One obvious outcome is that Lakes shipping companies opt to slow down the operating speeds of their ships, meaning each ship makes fewer trips per season and increases the importance of having 'spare' or 'marginal' capacity in a fleet. In GLF's case that might mean finding more potential value in hulls like the Callaway and Blough.

Another potential outcome is that another major operator chooses to exit the business entirely. If such an operator exited all at once, its ships would likely be up for sale and that could mean a sure-fire retirement for the Blough if her owners suddenly had other options for adding or replacing tonnage. If instead some other operator decided to exit the business by steadily retiring ships as they slide further down the CII 'grading' system, they might not be interested in selling any of their ships to other companies they still consider competitors, even if just for the short run. If that were to be the case, perhaps the Blough's owners would find it lucrative to already be holding onto their own spare tonnage.

It's often said that ATBs are less fuel-efficient than ships due to the tug-barge hull interface/gap being less hydrodynamic than the stern end of a 'conventional' ship. If that's true it might mean that CII / EEXI fuel calculations lead to ATBs looking less lucrative vs. ships, a trend that's already underway as crew sizes on ships gets smaller and ATBs lose their labor cost advantage there. It's also possible that ATBs win out vs. ships on CII calculations if only the GRT of the tug is used, meaning a tug with less than 4000 GRT is exempt from the rules in a loophole kind of way, even though it's pushing a barge the size of a ship and moving the same amount of cargo. (That same kind of loophole but with respect to crew sizes is what gave us the modern proliferation of ATBs in the first place). If CII does apply to ATBs, perhaps VanEnkevort's newer hulls likeGreat Lakes Trader, Erie Trader and Michigan Trader, or Lafarge's Integrity and Innovation would be ideal candidates to have new CII-compliant tugs built for them, or perhaps for the construction of completely new CII-compliant stern ends added onto them, converting them to ships. Perhaps a lot of the older ATBs might suddenly require more rebuilding than their owners deem cost-effective, which could lead to a rather swift and major reduction in available tonnage in the U.S. fleet overall, which might change the calculus re: the Blough. Or perhaps owners just keep building or converting new CII-compliant tugs even for their older barge hulls, and ATBs continue on the Lakes scene.

GuestFromEU also mentions that even relatively new ships might end up not being able to readily comply with increasingly strong CII standards. If that's the case, then a lot of traditionally accepted knowledge about the desirability of, say, a thousand footer vs. a 1950s-vintage ship might go out the window. Does the streamlined shape of a 1950s hull give it better potential fuel efficiency than that of a thousand footer? If that's the case, and a ship like the Callaway's holds are in bad shape but its bow and stern are in good condition, perhaps it would be possible to create a CII-compliant vessel rather cheaply by joining the Callaway's existing bow and stern to a new mid-body and installing a new power plant in the stern, with nods towards easy adaptability toward adding future advances in propulsion tech. Such a project could even involve moving the self-unloading boom to the forward end and even installing a shorter mid-body in her to create a new river-class vessel. Or perhaps sheer size and carrying capacity still tips the scales in efficiency requirements, meaning it would make more economic sense to try to re-power a ship like the Speer in a way that makes her likely to be able to adapt to future CII requirements. In Key Lakes/GLF's case, what of Presque Isle? How fuel-efficient is her hull form, and what kind of shape are her hull/holds in? If the best option for CII compliance ends up being something like building completely new stern ends (with all the necessary power plant/propulsion tech) onto existing cargo hold/bows, would she be a better candidate for such a project, or would the Blough be a better candidate for such a project?

The same question unfolds in other fleets. Which ships are better prospects for conversion or alteration in the efforts to hold up to the new standards? Does it make more sense to start from scratch with new-builds? If any of those companies end up having to retire several of their ships, whether they're from the 1950s or 1970s era of shipbuilding on the U.S. side, tonnage that seems surplus now might very well prove useful or valuable soon, if it lends itself well to whatever kind of alterations end up being viable ones to adapt Great Lakes trading for new operating standards.

Until those questions are properly evaluated, GLF may very well find it worthwhile to hold onto the Blough, especially if her holds and bow are in good shape, and especially if her bow shape / hull form lend themselves well to good hydrodynamic efficiency.
Andrew

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by Andrew »

At the end of the day, fleets will invest in new tech for regulations in 2023, the reason being is that there is no alternative. They aren't going to build fast enough to replace any of the tonnage that's being shelved. Either some extension or some loophole, or new technology, will, in my opinion, inevitably happen. If it doesn't, the US could really see a major collapse as far as the iron industry, which affects most every aspect of the current economy. Unless the intent is to drive the US economy into the ground (not a political comment and do not construe it that way), I don't see how there isn't an alternative. The government is putting money into new icebreakers and new locks, so I doubt that they'll make it impossible to move stuff.
hausen
Posts: 803
Joined: July 2, 2010, 1:36 pm

Re: GLF update?

Unread post by hausen »

GuestfromEU wrote: You prosed an excellent comment in that future, rapidly approaching changes to the Great Lakes fleet may be hard to envision in 2021, but will come nonetheless. Decisions are still not firmed by shipowners on paths forward, but options are few and limiting, whether practically or financially.
GuestfromEU wrote:While I may sound like a Debbie Downer and beating this topic like dead horse, this is a subject I am involved in on a daily basis with ocean ships trading in the Australasian market. Not the Great Lakes of course, but the new regulations affect all in the same. The Great Lakes ship watching community has a following not matched by many elsewhere in the world. This is a reason I visit this page frequently. Unfortunately, devout followings often do not accept reality in some aspects. While the best outcome is to see exemptions for ships on the Great Lakes, it is doubtful to happen and we cannot predict what the US or Canadian fleet will look like in 3, 5 or 10 years from now.
These pending regulations could signal a renaissance in Lakes shipping, but perhaps only with proper accompanying action from the U.S. and Canadian governments. Moving people and goods by water is ultimately far more fuel/energy/resource-efficient than land and/or air-based modes of transport. In North America, we currently go out of our way to artificially subsidize some of those less-than-ideal modes of transport and mostly ignore or even actively discourage waterborne transport. We see this setup as 'normal' or 'inevitable' when it is anything but.

It would be shamefully counter-productive to continue the status-quo, which as you point out, may mean that Lakes shipping companies use EEXI/CII regulations as a reason to allow the Lakes fleet and its activity to dwindle or disappear, while simultaneously we keep giving handouts to far less efficient / far more destructive transport modes.

If the U.S. and Canadian governments recognize the potential for regional waterborne transport to serve as a major positive contributor to solving many of the problems we face which EEXI/CII are trying to address, they'd proactively enact programs which encourage and assist industrial actors to meet or exceed these new regulations, and the region's people, economy, and environment would benefit as a whole.

The community of people who are interested in Lakes shipping there would likely experience a positive side effect of such an outcome. The future might bring fewer thousand footers hauling coal and uncertainty in the iron ore trade. On the other hand if we finally enact common-sense transport policy in the Lakes region with respect to efficiency, the environment, and public safety there would almost certainly be a revival in the waterborne general cargo, grain, and passenger trades that would make for great boatwatching.
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