by Guest » November 2, 2022, 10:01 am
Scott wrote: November 2, 2022, 6:10 am
Fate? Like the fate that befell the Ryerson and John Sherwin? Two lakers that, despite what happened to the Blough, continue to rust away in long term layup. Why haven't the Ryerson and Sherwin been scrapped?
I have been interested in Great Lakes shipping for nearly 50 years, and I can tell you that the industry has been in nothing other than decline since at least the 1980s but the beginnings of that go back even further to the late 1950s. The continuing current decline in tonnages along with an aging fleet will eventually catch up with many US shipping companies that apparently have no intention of acquiring replacement tonnage. Do you think GATX would have divested itself of ASC if it were not in its financial interest to do so? Would CN reportedly look to exit from its Great Lakes shipping operations? Apparently, these companies have looked at their long term prospects based on information not privy to most of us and made these decisions. The two ships you cite are generally exceptions for various reasons and in regard to their ownership that obviously perceives some value in retaining them. If that were not the case, both would be gone by now. More to the point, would ASC have divested itself of the American Victory, American Fortitude, and American Valor if future demand projections had deemed these vessels worthy of repowering for continued service? The bottom line is that there is currently not enough demand to keep all of the current ships in operation. Would GLF have a system of rotating their AAA class ships with at least one in layup if the demand was there? Although both were usually early layups during rough times, it is quite clear that the current US fleet has been able to absorb any lost capacity due to the removal from service of the Roger Blough and St. Clair. To see how commerce has declined on the lakes, take a look at the annual cargo numbers published by the Lake Carriers' Association and compare them against ones from the past decades back to the 1950s. Also factor in the economic growth of the country over that same period and it is obvious that the tonnages carried on the lakes have fallen way behind. Not trying to through a wet blanket on the boat watching hobby or disagree with you but don't expect the glory days to return any time soon.
[quote=Scott post_id=250839 time=1667387445]
Fate? Like the fate that befell the Ryerson and John Sherwin? Two lakers that, despite what happened to the Blough, continue to rust away in long term layup. Why haven't the Ryerson and Sherwin been scrapped?
[/quote]
I have been interested in Great Lakes shipping for nearly 50 years, and I can tell you that the industry has been in nothing other than decline since at least the 1980s but the beginnings of that go back even further to the late 1950s. The continuing current decline in tonnages along with an aging fleet will eventually catch up with many US shipping companies that apparently have no intention of acquiring replacement tonnage. Do you think GATX would have divested itself of ASC if it were not in its financial interest to do so? Would CN reportedly look to exit from its Great Lakes shipping operations? Apparently, these companies have looked at their long term prospects based on information not privy to most of us and made these decisions. The two ships you cite are generally exceptions for various reasons and in regard to their ownership that obviously perceives some value in retaining them. If that were not the case, both would be gone by now. More to the point, would ASC have divested itself of the American Victory, American Fortitude, and American Valor if future demand projections had deemed these vessels worthy of repowering for continued service? The bottom line is that there is currently not enough demand to keep all of the current ships in operation. Would GLF have a system of rotating their AAA class ships with at least one in layup if the demand was there? Although both were usually early layups during rough times, it is quite clear that the current US fleet has been able to absorb any lost capacity due to the removal from service of the Roger Blough and St. Clair. To see how commerce has declined on the lakes, take a look at the annual cargo numbers published by the Lake Carriers' Association and compare them against ones from the past decades back to the 1950s. Also factor in the economic growth of the country over that same period and it is obvious that the tonnages carried on the lakes have fallen way behind. Not trying to through a wet blanket on the boat watching hobby or disagree with you but don't expect the glory days to return any time soon.