by Guest » November 14, 2022, 10:49 pm
As another person wrote it's way too early to know how the 2023 shipping season will start or even progress.
Writing that, much depends on how hard the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of Canada want to reign in inflation, which is at 40 year highs. It looks like both want to slam the brakes on inflation, but in so doing, they greatly increase the risk of a severe recession.
Many economists I have read think the economy will be in a recession in 2023, but that it will be mild - but really, it's anyone's guess.
If there is a recession and it's more than mild, then we may see the closure of more blast furnaces. This trend has been on-going for the last 50 years, where every time there's a recession, the least productive and most expensive to operate integrated steel mills are closed.
Weekly raw steel production from integrated mills is down from from it's high earlier in the year, though that's true of the mini-mills in the South. And that's the rub, weekly raw steel production in the Southern US exceeds weekly raw steel production from the Great Lakes area by 150,000 tons a week. The mini-mills have a greater share of the market than the traditional integrated steel mills. And with US Steel's Big River Steel building a $3 billion dollar mini-mill in Alabama, that share will only increase.
As another person wrote it's way too early to know how the 2023 shipping season will start or even progress.
Writing that, much depends on how hard the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of Canada want to reign in inflation, which is at 40 year highs. It looks like both want to slam the brakes on inflation, but in so doing, they greatly increase the risk of a severe recession.
Many economists I have read think the economy will be in a recession in 2023, but that it will be mild - but really, it's anyone's guess.
If there is a recession and it's more than mild, then we may see the closure of more blast furnaces. This trend has been on-going for the last 50 years, where every time there's a recession, the least productive and most expensive to operate integrated steel mills are closed.
Weekly raw steel production from integrated mills is down from from it's high earlier in the year, though that's true of the mini-mills in the South. And that's the rub, weekly raw steel production in the Southern US exceeds weekly raw steel production from the Great Lakes area by 150,000 tons a week. The mini-mills have a greater share of the market than the traditional integrated steel mills. And with US Steel's Big River Steel building a $3 billion dollar mini-mill in Alabama, that share will only increase.