by Guest » February 13, 2023, 2:28 pm
Scott wrote: ↑February 12, 2023, 11:16 am
I need to chime in here. I've read that a major company (Cliffs?) ordered the modernization of one of its pellet facilities on the Iron Range. My point is, why would they do that unless they were anticipating increased demand? Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my question for all you Great Lakes Shipping Monday morning quarterbacks.
I have been observing the Great Lakes shipping industry, along with the closely related auto and steel industries, since the 1970s, so I would venture to claim to have gained some sort of experience with the cyclic nature of these market sectors. Simply put, the auto and steel industries are very susceptible to market changes and are often the first to suffer during any economic downturns and the last to recover during times of relative prosperity. For the most, when these industries do rebound they are often smaller than they were before in terms of both employment and raw material consumption. Blast furnaces will soon be a thing of the past and that will force yet another change to the US fleet much like that of the ongoing phasing out of coal. Granted, there are some bright spots in the form of taconite being used in the production of HBI, but that is offset by the continuing decline in domestic steel production which in many ways has its roots back in the 1959 steel strikes that opened the door for imported steel to make major inroads into what was basically a protected market for US steel producers. In terms of cargo availability, increases in efficiency have also eroded raw material demands.
Back in the 1980s, I seriously considered a career on the lakes, but it was quite obvious that it was not a growth industry with the number of ships being scrapped and even more importantly the closure and demolishing of many of the industrial plants the shipping industry served. From looking at some of the information currently provided by the Lake Carriers Association it appears that US ships move about 40 million net tons of iron ore each season. This is very near the 43 million net tons moved during the disastrous 1982 season, which itself was the lowest amount of ore moved in any single season since the Great Depression. I don't think anyone is predicting the end of shipping on the Great Lakes in the terms of US-flagged fleets, but I believe that there will be a further consolidation of the few fleets still remaining and a massive downsizing of the current fleet in numbers not really seen since the 1980s. I know my viewpoints don't make me a very popular guy in this thread, but I'm just trying to be realistic about the future prospects of the US fleet. This is one time, I hope to be proven wrong!
[quote=Scott post_id=252079 time=1676218563]
I need to chime in here. I've read that a major company (Cliffs?) ordered the modernization of one of its pellet facilities on the Iron Range. My point is, why would they do that unless they were anticipating increased demand? Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my question for all you Great Lakes Shipping Monday morning quarterbacks.
[/quote]
I have been observing the Great Lakes shipping industry, along with the closely related auto and steel industries, since the 1970s, so I would venture to claim to have gained some sort of experience with the cyclic nature of these market sectors. Simply put, the auto and steel industries are very susceptible to market changes and are often the first to suffer during any economic downturns and the last to recover during times of relative prosperity. For the most, when these industries do rebound they are often smaller than they were before in terms of both employment and raw material consumption. Blast furnaces will soon be a thing of the past and that will force yet another change to the US fleet much like that of the ongoing phasing out of coal. Granted, there are some bright spots in the form of taconite being used in the production of HBI, but that is offset by the continuing decline in domestic steel production which in many ways has its roots back in the 1959 steel strikes that opened the door for imported steel to make major inroads into what was basically a protected market for US steel producers. In terms of cargo availability, increases in efficiency have also eroded raw material demands.
Back in the 1980s, I seriously considered a career on the lakes, but it was quite obvious that it was not a growth industry with the number of ships being scrapped and even more importantly the closure and demolishing of many of the industrial plants the shipping industry served. From looking at some of the information currently provided by the Lake Carriers Association it appears that US ships move about 40 million net tons of iron ore each season. This is very near the 43 million net tons moved during the disastrous 1982 season, which itself was the lowest amount of ore moved in any single season since the Great Depression. I don't think anyone is predicting the end of shipping on the Great Lakes in the terms of US-flagged fleets, but I believe that there will be a further consolidation of the few fleets still remaining and a massive downsizing of the current fleet in numbers not really seen since the 1980s. I know my viewpoints don't make me a very popular guy in this thread, but I'm just trying to be realistic about the future prospects of the US fleet. This is one time, I hope to be proven wrong!