Early Predictions for 2023

Discussion board focusing on Great Lakes Shipping Question & Answer. From beginner to expert all posts are welcome.
Guest

Re: Early Predictions for 2023

Unread post by Guest »

As another person wrote it's way too early to know how the 2023 shipping season will start or even progress.

Writing that, much depends on how hard the Federal Reserve in the US and the Bank of Canada want to reign in inflation, which is at 40 year highs. It looks like both want to slam the brakes on inflation, but in so doing, they greatly increase the risk of a severe recession.

Many economists I have read think the economy will be in a recession in 2023, but that it will be mild - but really, it's anyone's guess.

If there is a recession and it's more than mild, then we may see the closure of more blast furnaces. This trend has been on-going for the last 50 years, where every time there's a recession, the least productive and most expensive to operate integrated steel mills are closed.

Weekly raw steel production from integrated mills is down from from it's high earlier in the year, though that's true of the mini-mills in the South. And that's the rub, weekly raw steel production in the Southern US exceeds weekly raw steel production from the Great Lakes area by 150,000 tons a week. The mini-mills have a greater share of the market than the traditional integrated steel mills. And with US Steel's Big River Steel building a $3 billion dollar mini-mill in Alabama, that share will only increase.
Darryl

Re: Early Predictions for 2023

Unread post by Darryl »

It will be interesting to see if they continue to stand up to the foreign dumping of Steel. It will be good to see the Silver Bay Plant come back online which it's scheduled to do in about 5-6 months. And we'll maybe start to see more effect from the Iron Nugget end of the industry. I would be positive overall.
Guest

Re: Early Predictions for 2023

Unread post by Guest »

Way too early to tell.
Denny

Early Predictions for 2023

Unread post by Denny »

Just wondering is all with so much talk about the economy and a possible recession in the US that is if we’re not in one now, just what boats may be sailing in 2023 and what could remain at the walls then? Case in point, look at the Cort fitted out late in 2022 as did the Clarke as well. There were also a few Canadians I think from Algoma that also fitted out late this year. I’m just wondering is all, could we see a few ships sail early in 2023 only to go back into a layup or stand-by during the shipping season? I think IF the economy does get bad enough in 2023 and a recession hits or things get worse, then I could see a few ships then sitting for a while. Not trying to sound negative but just curious? With the decline for coal now, I’m sure the footers will be busy hauling as much ore as they can and YES I do know the American Spirit has hauled some limestone in 2022 and it’s been used to carry ore at times to Algoma as well. I could see a few of the footers sitting idle maybe if there isn’t enough business to have them out. Again not trying to sound negative on my comments just curious is all and what others may be thinking and if I’m the only one?
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