Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Discussion board focusing on Great Lakes Shipping Question & Answer. From beginner to expert all posts are welcome.
Jon Paul
Posts: 888
Joined: December 14, 2017, 8:37 pm

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Jon Paul »

Today in the Times of Northwest Indiana it was announced that US Steel has signed an agreement with CarbonFree Ink MoU to capture CO2 emissions at it Gary Works. Eventually an estimated 50k metric tons of CO2 can be mineralized.
The announcement is also posted on investors.ussteel.com
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Dofasco has talked about using hydrogen after the Canadian government and Ontario government tried to get them to switch to EAFs.

I wish Cliffs well, but the cost of carbon capture and sequestration could be a cost that impacts the profitability of using blast furnaces/bofs. Only time will tell.

Another question is what happens in the coming months with the economy. The Fed is pushing hard to stop inflation by raising interest rates, and the last time they did with such robustness, they pushed the economy into a severe recession. The steel industry is in much better shape then it was in 1981/82, but remembering what happened back then leaves me nervous for the future...
Under_Pressure

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Under_Pressure »

I mean it's only logical that SOMEWHERE somebody has to be turning raw ore into steel- there has to be some net gain to the worldwide steel supply vs re-melting what is already out there. HBI and similar technologies that turn ore into a product suitable for electric arc production accomplish this as well, but it seems to me that is just moving the process of refining ore into iron away from the mill- it still needs to be done. And if existing integrated mills can do it all in one process, without heating/cooling/reheating the material to get to the same place, it would seem that would be worth keeping going from a long term perspective. Capital-wise, for new greenfield production capacity, it may not make sense to build an integrated mill vs an EAF mill but it would seem short sighted to abandon the ones that already exist, at least the more efficient ones (which are all that are left at this point).
Guest JonPaul

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest JonPaul »

There is an interesting article in the Times of Northwest Indiana covering the recent conference call between Cliffs and investors.
Lourenco Goncalves indicated that Cliffs is fully commited to advancing Blast Furnace/BOF technology to produce the highly specified Automotive Grade steels for their customers.
Also that new technologies for pursuing Carbon Capture and Sequestration are going to be on trial at the Burns Harbor Mill and that studies of increasing the use of hydrogen to replace some fossil fuel energy.
Its quite an informative and positive article and indicates that Cliffs see's a somewhat brighter picture for Great Lakes Steel making than others on here and will maintain a strong presence in the Great Lakes Region for the foreseeable future.
Jon Paul
Posts: 888
Joined: December 14, 2017, 8:37 pm

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Jon Paul »

Cliffs seems to have had Ironville well covered with VTB averaging 3 deliveries a week of 35K pellets and the JLB also in the mix later in the season.
Old Sailor

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Old Sailor »

I don't think the 105 foot beam fits between the railroad bridge So forget the Blough, not to mention other unloading restrictions. The St. Clair would of been a better candidate, but that fate as been sealed.
CSLFAN

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by CSLFAN »

Every time I go by the plant in Toledo I amazed at the size of the pellet pile ...it is beyond huge....they get along just fine without Blough.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

The only trip the Blough will be making is to the scrap yard. It’s done no matter how hard you wish it to be saved.
Mn bob

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Mn bob »

Wouldn’t the blough be a good candidate to haul pellets from silver bay to Toledo? I realize that they would have to put a hopper for the blough to unload into but I don’t think that would be a huge problem.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Scott wrote: February 21, 2023, 7:10 am
Guest wrote: February 13, 2023, 11:46 pm Hear hear!!, Another well thought out rational post by someone who considers all components both past and present. Many of us have said basically the same things just in different ways and words. For some reason we are labeled radicals or off base or Not informed or simply pessimists . Many contributors to this thread are knowledgeable from first hand experience as past or present sailors, steel industry workers, steel haulers etc. The heyday of Great Lakes shipping is long gone. Simply count the remaining fleets, active vessel #s , active steel co and blast furnaces today vs the early eighties. What’s left could go on for a few stable years or it could be like 1980-1982 when the floor collapsed and over 75,000 steel workers hit the bricks unemployed and dozens of furnaces went down for good and dozens of obsolete Lakers were scrapped. No matter how or when, the American fleet will see continued vessels at the wall or the scrappers. It’s why fleets are facing qualified crew shortages as younger generation sees no future. I’m retired but my license is still active. I got 3 offers to work relief this past summer n fall and I’m 67 years old🙄. Lots of guys stay aboard all season now as reliefs are hard to find.

Cleveland Cliffs...Northshore Mining...enough said.
Perhaps, I'm seeing things incorrectly but in the close up image of the plant at Silver Bay that appears on the News Page posted on February 21, 2023 the facility appears to be in rough shape with several siding panels either missing or in a severely deteriorated condition. Is this actually the case or are these sections of the facility opened to the weather for some reason?
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Many of us keep saying the same thing in various posts. The elimination of coal will be the death nail of several vessels. Plus, you can’t keep running 70 yr old steamers forever. GATX dumped American ss for a bargain price. Huge profitable Corp. What does that tell you? Old ships,less cargo, shortages of new sailors. Interlake and Van Enkvort are well positioned. The Rest? Slow attrition. I appreciate boat nerds wishful optimistic thinking. However, perhaps us who were in the industry see things more realistically. No one says it’s collapsing tomorrow. There’s just not a bright long term future.
Jared
Posts: 798
Joined: December 6, 2014, 4:51 pm

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Jared »

Guest wrote: February 21, 2023, 6:04 pm Although iron ore is far from being the only cargo hauled by US flagged carriers it is over 50% of the total seasonal average of cargoes according to the Lake Carriers Association's own numbers, with the next largest single commodity being limestone which only averages out to about 50% of the iron ore figure. Limestone movements appear to be much more stable than the ore trade at least by looking at the data for the past 4 years. While it is true that some new business may come about from other, previously undefined commodities, such as the steel cargoes carried by Interlake, where is the volume going to come from to replace the continual decline of the majority of the seasonal cargoes? This will likely reach a point at which there will be a further consolidation of the few remaining fleets and the retirement of several current vessels without replacements. With the average age of the current US fleet, there is probably not enough shipbuilding capacity on the lakes to replace these units on a unit by unit basis even if business conditions warranted such a program of fleet renewal. Some vessels could be built off the lakes, however, by limiting their size to Seaway dimensions.
I fully believe that the few operators left will become increasingly creative in finding new cargoes and trade routes to maximize the utilization rates of their ships, but don't expect the number of US vessels to increase in size or even remain at its current level into the future. The loss of the carrying capacities of both the St. Clair and Roger Blough is telling in that their removal has had no apparent detrimental impact on their respective fleets in meeting seasonal tonnage commitments. I know that several will argue that these two units were inefficient in several ways to other ships and they were often the last in their fleets to return to service and among the first to lay up in times of depressed business conditions. I would rather argue that if tonnage movements on the lakes had increased over time in line with regular economic growth then these two would have likely been either modified to improve their efficiency or replaced. In reality, the continuous decline of waterborne commerce in the US fleet has prohibited any real growth other than modernization programs such as repowering. It is revealing that only one powered vessel has been built (and I believe only three dry bulk barge units) in the past 40 years and that currently there appears to be no hint as to any further new construction.
I agree with your assessment wholeheartedly. The lake trade will evolve, but shipping numbers with decline across the board. The region's natural resources have been and will continually be exhausted to the point that it will be uneconimical to carry the current commodities on the lakes. I am hoping to see the return of package freighters in the future though as long range trucking declines and RR infrastructure degrades.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Although iron ore is far from being the only cargo hauled by US flagged carriers it is over 50% of the total seasonal average of cargoes according to the Lake Carriers Association's own numbers, with the next largest single commodity being limestone which only averages out to about 50% of the iron ore figure. Limestone movements appear to be much more stable than the ore trade at least by looking at the data for the past 4 years. While it is true that some new business may come about from other, previously undefined commodities, such as the steel cargoes carried by Interlake, where is the volume going to come from to replace the continual decline of the majority of the seasonal cargoes? This will likely reach a point at which there will be a further consolidation of the few remaining fleets and the retirement of several current vessels without replacements. With the average age of the current US fleet, there is probably not enough shipbuilding capacity on the lakes to replace these units on a unit by unit basis even if business conditions warranted such a program of fleet renewal. Some vessels could be built off the lakes, however, by limiting their size to Seaway dimensions.
I fully believe that the few operators left will become increasingly creative in finding new cargoes and trade routes to maximize the utilization rates of their ships, but don't expect the number of US vessels to increase in size or even remain at its current level into the future. The loss of the carrying capacities of both the St. Clair and Roger Blough is telling in that their removal has had no apparent detrimental impact on their respective fleets in meeting seasonal tonnage commitments. I know that several will argue that these two units were inefficient in several ways to other ships and they were often the last in their fleets to return to service and among the first to lay up in times of depressed business conditions. I would rather argue that if tonnage movements on the lakes had increased over time in line with regular economic growth then these two would have likely been either modified to improve their efficiency or replaced. In reality, the continuous decline of waterborne commerce in the US fleet has prohibited any real growth other than modernization programs such as repowering. It is revealing that only one powered vessel has been built (and I believe only three dry bulk barge units) in the past 40 years and that currently there appears to be no hint as to any further new construction.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

What many here fail to realize (or acknowledge) is that while iron ore makes up a large portion of Great Lakes shipping, it is not the entirety of Great Lakes shipping, and neither is coal. Plus, nobody is including the possible cargoes of the future or the repurposing of self-unloaders to handle other bulk cargoes or even new cargoes such as the steel loads that the Paul R. Tregurtha and Mark W. Barker handled this season. While the future may not look the greatest based on the trends of the industries that currently rely on Great Lakes shipping, let us not forget the possibility of a bright future to come with new changes. While these changes may not be appreciated by the hobby boat-watchers, there is a bright future to come for this industry in ways we may not expect right now.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

While this is welcome news it was widely expected. There was a glut of pellets on the market due to continued production during Covid while demand for steel dropped. Market forces are in better balance now. This in no way changes the overall LONG term future for steel demand and for shipping. It will continue to shrink as it has the past 40 yrs.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Scott wrote: February 21, 2023, 7:10 am
Guest wrote: February 13, 2023, 11:46 pm Hear hear!!, Another well thought out rational post by someone who considers all components both past and present. Many of us have said basically the same things just in different ways and words. For some reason we are labeled radicals or off base or Not informed or simply pessimists . Many contributors to this thread are knowledgeable from first hand experience as past or present sailors, steel industry workers, steel haulers etc. The heyday of Great Lakes shipping is long gone. Simply count the remaining fleets, active vessel #s , active steel co and blast furnaces today vs the early eighties. What’s left could go on for a few stable years or it could be like 1980-1982 when the floor collapsed and over 75,000 steel workers hit the bricks unemployed and dozens of furnaces went down for good and dozens of obsolete Lakers were scrapped. No matter how or when, the American fleet will see continued vessels at the wall or the scrappers. It’s why fleets are facing qualified crew shortages as younger generation sees no future. I’m retired but my license is still active. I got 3 offers to work relief this past summer n fall and I’m 67 years old🙄. Lots of guys stay aboard all season now as reliefs are hard to find.

Cleveland Cliffs...Northshore Mining...enough said.
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there is no logical way that it is reasonable to view US flagged shipping on the Great Lakes and iron ore production as a growth business. Upgrades done to the existing mining assets is likely being done to ensure they remain profitable but there is no sign that there will be any significant increases in terms of capacity in either mining or water transportation in the foreseeable future. This is not the view of "Monday morning quarterbacking" but a conclusion drawn from decades of experience with these fields. I'm not saying that US flagged shipping will disappear entirely but it is likely the fleet will be significantly depleted over the coming years as tonnages continue to decline at the same time as the majority of the fleet ranging between 40 and 75 years of age. After seeing decades of decline in both tonnages and vessels, it is very difficult to be optimistic about the future of US shipping on the lakes, so I hope that my fellow enthusiasts in this hobby can forgive my pessimism.
Scott

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Scott »

Guest wrote: February 13, 2023, 11:46 pm Hear hear!!, Another well thought out rational post by someone who considers all components both past and present. Many of us have said basically the same things just in different ways and words. For some reason we are labeled radicals or off base or Not informed or simply pessimists . Many contributors to this thread are knowledgeable from first hand experience as past or present sailors, steel industry workers, steel haulers etc. The heyday of Great Lakes shipping is long gone. Simply count the remaining fleets, active vessel #s , active steel co and blast furnaces today vs the early eighties. What’s left could go on for a few stable years or it could be like 1980-1982 when the floor collapsed and over 75,000 steel workers hit the bricks unemployed and dozens of furnaces went down for good and dozens of obsolete Lakers were scrapped. No matter how or when, the American fleet will see continued vessels at the wall or the scrappers. It’s why fleets are facing qualified crew shortages as younger generation sees no future. I’m retired but my license is still active. I got 3 offers to work relief this past summer n fall and I’m 67 years old🙄. Lots of guys stay aboard all season now as reliefs are hard to find.

Cleveland Cliffs...Northshore Mining...enough said.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Hear hear!!, Another well thought out rational post by someone who considers all components both past and present. Many of us have said basically the same things just in different ways and words. For some reason we are labeled radicals or off base or Not informed or simply pessimists . Many contributors to this thread are knowledgeable from first hand experience as past or present sailors, steel industry workers, steel haulers etc. The heyday of Great Lakes shipping is long gone. Simply count the remaining fleets, active vessel #s , active steel co and blast furnaces today vs the early eighties. What’s left could go on for a few stable years or it could be like 1980-1982 when the floor collapsed and over 75,000 steel workers hit the bricks unemployed and dozens of furnaces went down for good and dozens of obsolete Lakers were scrapped. No matter how or when, the American fleet will see continued vessels at the wall or the scrappers. It’s why fleets are facing qualified crew shortages as younger generation sees no future. I’m retired but my license is still active. I got 3 offers to work relief this past summer n fall and I’m 67 years old🙄. Lots of guys stay aboard all season now as reliefs are hard to find.
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

Scott wrote: February 12, 2023, 11:16 am I need to chime in here. I've read that a major company (Cliffs?) ordered the modernization of one of its pellet facilities on the Iron Range. My point is, why would they do that unless they were anticipating increased demand? Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my question for all you Great Lakes Shipping Monday morning quarterbacks.
I have been observing the Great Lakes shipping industry, along with the closely related auto and steel industries, since the 1970s, so I would venture to claim to have gained some sort of experience with the cyclic nature of these market sectors. Simply put, the auto and steel industries are very susceptible to market changes and are often the first to suffer during any economic downturns and the last to recover during times of relative prosperity. For the most, when these industries do rebound they are often smaller than they were before in terms of both employment and raw material consumption. Blast furnaces will soon be a thing of the past and that will force yet another change to the US fleet much like that of the ongoing phasing out of coal. Granted, there are some bright spots in the form of taconite being used in the production of HBI, but that is offset by the continuing decline in domestic steel production which in many ways has its roots back in the 1959 steel strikes that opened the door for imported steel to make major inroads into what was basically a protected market for US steel producers. In terms of cargo availability, increases in efficiency have also eroded raw material demands.

Back in the 1980s, I seriously considered a career on the lakes, but it was quite obvious that it was not a growth industry with the number of ships being scrapped and even more importantly the closure and demolishing of many of the industrial plants the shipping industry served. From looking at some of the information currently provided by the Lake Carriers Association it appears that US ships move about 40 million net tons of iron ore each season. This is very near the 43 million net tons moved during the disastrous 1982 season, which itself was the lowest amount of ore moved in any single season since the Great Depression. I don't think anyone is predicting the end of shipping on the Great Lakes in the terms of US-flagged fleets, but I believe that there will be a further consolidation of the few fleets still remaining and a massive downsizing of the current fleet in numbers not really seen since the 1980s. I know my viewpoints don't make me a very popular guy in this thread, but I'm just trying to be realistic about the future prospects of the US fleet. This is one time, I hope to be proven wrong!
Guest

Re: Roger Blough - The Lawsuit Has Begun

Unread post by Guest »

IMO all steel making in Pittsburgh is the next to go and probably soon. Their Pittsburgh coke plant is always in trouble with the EPA. That would clobber a lot of long haul tonnage.
Middleton perhaps because it's inland and you have the added transportation costs. In their favor is they are close to Toyota and Honda stamping plants and have reputation of producing some very high quality steel.
Cleveland was always Cliff's most efficient. Dearborn's attached to the Ford plant. And of course Gary for USS and Burns Harbor are good mills . So maybe 6 or 8 blast furnaces in all the US
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