Who will be sailing in 2025?

[Guest]

Tariffs will impact the steel industry no doubt and not in a good manner. Inflation is rising already and tariffs will only add to it. Demand for steel should fall due high costs of all consumer goods. So I can see some boats on the wall this season. Some may fit out and lay up mid-season if conditions worsen. I've been saying for some time that careers of the oldtimers are coming to a close. There are many ripe for " long-term layup". It will be interesting to see where we're at in a few short months.

[Guest]

As someone in the market, I can definitively say that the spectre of tariffs are having a "chilling" effect on volumes for 2025 for cross-border trade, with some commodities simply not able to absorb such price shocks (i.e. won't move). Yes, US steel makers may see a boost in volumes, except to the extent that JA capacity may not be available.

[Guest]

Well the tariffs have been set aside already.

The auto industry has told the Administration that unless tariffs are on all imports from all countries. the US auto manufactures will be crushed by the Koreans, Japanese, and European car imports which don't have a tariff.

Even if some tariffs (and reciprocal tariffs ) are put up on Canada and the US, the cost will just be added to the sales price. You can bet US steel, salt and stone producers will already raise their prices to take advantage of the rising import prices. Same with Canada.

[Custom500]

The whole tariff thing will be settled by the time they sail again.

[Under_Pressure]

Hey Denny , yes it will be an interesting time on the Great Lakes for sure , I suspect all of the Canadian Steel plants will shut down because of tariffs , so no American boats needed to deliver pellets to Nanticoke , I can’t imagine Americans buying Canadian salt from Goderich or Grains from Thunder Bay or Dolomites from Drummond due to the added cost , petroleum products from Sarnia and Nanticoke to the states will probably stop due to added cost , not sure of the cement boats with less rebar available for construction ? , even coal from Toledo to Ontario cement plants will stop , yes going to be an interesting yet sad year on OUR Great Lakes , oh forgot about Canadian Potash to the states both ships and trucks will stop , I guess we wait and see what will happen next .

? The tariffs right now are on steel and aluminum only. Yes, there are technically still "across to board" tariffs in place on Canada that are suspended, but as long as they keep up their end of the deal those should stay suspended. As far as those products, aluminum doesn't affect lake traffic much. Steel does, of course, and it will hurt the Canadian mills somewhat, but a) 25% tariffs on steel aren't that extreme or unusual (in fact this tariff isn't new at all, but just removing exemptions from the 25% tariff put in place in 2018) and b) essentially all lost production at the Canadian mills (plus more, from other countries) will shift across the border to the mills on the US side.

The US is in good shape on the EAF scrap-produced steel, it's the integrated mills producing from basic materials (i.e. the ones that use lake shipping) that need support, and this will give it to them. Just look at the market reaction- all the steelmakers improved after the announcement, but Cliffs- the biggest domestic player in both ore production and integrated steelmaking- really soared.

It's surprising to me how this is being discussed in a negative light here- tariffs are unequivocally good for US integrated steelmaking and, thus, for lake shipping. Boatnerds used to beg for something like this. Probably not as good if you are a Canadian boatnerd, but overall this should have a positive effect on lake traffic.

[captPaul]

Drummond is in the US.

[Guest]

Not sure why you would think in such draconian terms of reduced economics due to tariffs. Those products will still be in demand and will be bought and shipped as in the past. This is not the first time there have been tariffs. Goods were still bought and sold and moved by ships and trucks: trains etc. the sky is not falling.

[Guest]

Hey Denny , yes it will be an interesting time on the Great Lakes for sure , I suspect all of the Canadian Steel plants will shut down because of tariffs , so no American boats needed to deliver pellets to Nanticoke , I can’t imagine Americans buying Canadian salt from Goderich or Grains from Thunder Bay or Dolomites from Drummond due to the added cost , petroleum products from Sarnia and Nanticoke to the states will probably stop due to added cost , not sure of the cement boats with less rebar available for construction ? , even coal from Toledo to Ontario cement plants will stop , yes going to be an interesting yet sad year on OUR Great Lakes , oh forgot about Canadian Potash to the states both ships and trucks will stop , I guess we wait and see what will happen next .

As long as customers in the U.S. are willing to pay the 25% tariff and either absorb the cost or pass it on to the consumer, then products made in Canada will still be shipped to the U.S.

However, I have a feeling that this is all a negotiation tactic by the administration, as the USMCA agreement is up for renewal in 2026.

[Denny]

Forgot about her Guest. Thanks for the reminder on her not sailing in 2025 as I had “A Temporary Brain Freeze Up due to this crazy 🤪 weather and Winter as well that we have been having lately!” The one post by another Guest is indeed correct and a great explanation of how all of this with the tariffs now in place could impact and effect Great Lakes/Seaway Shipping this season. Hope everyone enjoyed the 2024 season while it lasted and got to see and photograph as many lake vessels and salties as they could. We may not be so lucky then in 2025. We’ll have to see!

[Guest]

Tim S. Dool will not be sailing

[Guest]

Hey Denny , yes it will be an interesting time on the Great Lakes for sure , I suspect all of the Canadian Steel plants will shut down because of tariffs , so no American boats needed to deliver pellets to Nanticoke , I can’t imagine Americans buying Canadian salt from Goderich or Grains from Thunder Bay or Dolomites from Drummond due to the added cost , petroleum products from Sarnia and Nanticoke to the states will probably stop due to added cost , not sure of the cement boats with less rebar available for construction ? , even coal from Toledo to Ontario cement plants will stop , yes going to be an interesting yet sad year on OUR Great Lakes , oh forgot about Canadian Potash to the states both ships and trucks will stop , I guess we wait and see what will happen next .

[Denny]

I know it may be way far too early yet to make any type of predictions, estimates or guesses at this point in time. However, with the new tariffs in place could we possibly see any and a few ships remain at the wall this Spring and not sail this year then? The Anderson and Clarke both looks like neither will sail in 2025. Was just curious as far as if anyone has heard of anything? Also, I’m talking about ships that did sail last year not ones like the Cuyahoga, Michipicoten and Roger Blough who sit idle right now with their futures yet unknown for now at least. I’m just more interested in the US & Canadian ships that were sailing in 2024, just who would sail in 2025? Also, could we possibly see fewer and less salties in 2025 with the tariffs as well? The 2025 shipping season could be an interesting one!